US-Notenbank Fed belässt Leitzins bei nahe Null – gute Aussichten für Aktien und neue Technologien

Während sich die Wirtschaft zunehmend erholt, wird es in der weiteren Debatte darum gehen, wie „maximale Beschäftigung“ definiert wird. Die Fed versteht darunter „die höchste Beschäftigungsquote bzw. die niedrigste Arbeitslosenquote, die die Wirtschaft bei einer stabilen Inflationsrate aufrechterhalten kann“.

Da der letzte Konjunkturzyklus bei wenig Anzeichen einer starken Inflation einen recht angespannten Arbeitsmarkt aufwies, ist unklar, wie sich „maximale Beschäftigung“ verwirklichen lassen soll. Es gibt Arbeitskräfte, die nicht leicht für eine Arbeit verfügbar sind (z.B. aufgrund von Faktoren wie Alter oder Krankheit), die umgeschult werden müssen oder dem Arbeitsmarkt nicht zur Verfügung stehen, weil Kinderbetreuung horrend teuer oder nicht verfügbar ist. Dies macht deutlich, dass die Erwerbsquote zwar von ihrem relativ niedrigen Niveau aus steigen kann, aber nur bis zu einem gewissen Punkt. Damit dies geschehen kann, müssten die Löhne deutlich steigen, und dies erscheint wiederum schwierig.

Wahrscheinlich ist hingegen eine zunehmende Automatisierung, während der Arbeitsmarkt enger wird. Zugleich dürften die Löhne in bestimmten Segmenten steigen, und zwar in Innovationsbereichen (z.B. Google) und in Sektoren, in denen eine weitere Automatisierung schwierig ist (z.B. Bauwesen, Landwirtschaft). Ähnlich wie im vorangegangenen Konjunkturzyklus halten wir ein starkes Anziehen der Löhne jedoch für wenig wahrscheinlich. Die Küchen von McDonalds werden am Ende vollständig automatisiert sein. Das ist gut für Aktien, aber enttäuschend für Arbeitnehmer in einer globalen Wirtschaft mit einer massiven Flaute auf dem Arbeitsmarkt.

Was bedeutet das für Investoren?

Die Zinssätze dürften bis 2023 sehr niedrig bleiben. Das sind gute Nachrichten für Kreditnehmer, nicht so sehr für Sparer. Darüber hinaus begünstigt eine lange Niedrigzinsphase das Aufkommen neuer Technologien und Geschäftsmodelle und wirkt sich generell positiv auf Aktien aus. Im Laufe der Zeit, wenn sich der Arbeitsmarkt anspannt, sollten wir eine Beschleunigung der Nachfrage nach disruptiven Technologien erleben.

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